A Perplexing Election

By Ron Walters At this moment, the result of the 2004 presidential contest is decided, but perhaps indecisive for the future of the country and of the fortunes of the Black community. As someone who called the race for Kerry, there is so much about this election that is counter-intuitive. For example, in the polling, most Americans think that the country is on the “wrong track,” an indicator that is usually a dead-ringer for the fact that a Kennedy School at Harvard University study found Kerry leading and most of those sampled were “definitely” going to vote. This prospect continued with the surprising number of new voters were registered by the 527s and other organizations which created the feeling of a massive movement building to reject Bush’s policies in Iraq and in domestic economic affairs. What is now telling about the race is that more people did come out, but most of them were for George Bush, by 3/5 million votes more than Kerry. That is an astounding figure over the 2000 election, since it will give Bush a mandate to go in the same direction, except at warp speed. The vaunted turnout of young people 18-29 did not change their total share of the vote over 2000, but they did swing from 48 percent for Gore in 2000 to 56 percent for Kerry this time. Bush also made in-roads into the Hispanic vote, as they decreased their support of Democrat Kerry, giving him 56 percent this time, but Gore 67 percent ink 2000. Hispanics also gave Ralph Nader 3 percent of their vote, a critical margin because they improved their vote to 9 percent of the total this time. As to the issues, George Bush was able to motivate his base better than Kerry and his base voted for his approach to moral issues, fighting terrorism, and taxes, while Kerry’s constituency voted for a better economy and jobs, health care, against the war in Iraq and for a better education. I think, however, that a key constituency missed by Kerry was the 29-34 crowd that split in 2000 and this year. If Kerry had posed a real difference on the war – get out of Iraq, for example – he might have been able to energize many more people in all of the group than he did. The Black vote was larger this time than in 2000, but only marginally so, moving from 10 percent of the total vote in 2000 to 11 percent this year. But there was no indication that the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies poll projecting that Blacks increased their support for Bush from 9 percent in 2000 to 18 percent this year. In fact, whereas Black support for Bush in 2000 was 9 percent, this year, it was 10 percent — only 1 percent higher, if that. So our view that Blacks, as a rule, don’t vote on issues such as gay marriage or aith-based funding, or other extraneous issues is supported by this result. Although Blacks did not break all records in voter turnout, they did their thing for the Democratic Party, but they needed far more help from Hispanics and moderate Whites. The slim silver lining for the Black community in this race was that the Congressional Black Caucus gained a net of three new seats, bringing their total to 42, and of course, Illinois State Senator Barack Obama was elected to the U. S. Senate. The three new CBC members are Gwendolyn Moore of Milwaukee, a long time state legislator; Emmanuel Cleaver, politically savvy former Mayor of Kansas City, Mo., and Al Green long time Democratic party activists from Houston. Ironically, because the Republicans expanded their control over the House, the increase in number of Black legislators will be unlikely to give them a greater political opportunities. So much has been said about Barack Obama’s coming to the Senate, but I will add my own view that it is one of the most positive political developments, even in this sea of trouble. But his leadership there is also likely to be more symbolic than substantive for a considerable period of time. The dirty little secret is that the result of this election is not all that earth-shaking because Blacks would probably have to battle a moderate John Kerry just hard for some priorities as Bush. Perhaps the result is better because it clarifies the target of our efforts, but organizing the ability to hit the target will be our greatest challenge. But let me repeat a thought that I have used at times in this space which is that one cannot understand what happened by logic alone, because what is driving the support of George Bush is the fact that the political center of gravity in America at this time is conservative that many of the people who support him know little about the fine points of his policies. They know more about the cultural cues that he gives off – the good ol’ boy image, the faux Christian conservatism, the cowboy stance, etc. It is regrettable, but these are valued more by the majority of Americans than common sense, logic and intelligence. Ron Walters is the Distinguished Leadership Scholar, director of the African American Leadership Institute in the Academy of Leadership and professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland-College Park.