News from Council District 5
Councilmember Dwight Pelz, ChairTransportation Committee
www.metrokc.gov/pelz
News Release
Contact: Dwight Pelz
September 27, 2004
(206) 296-1005
Pelz: Difficult for Metro Transit to meet Monorail Ridership Projections”Feeding” the Green Line Would Involve Major Financial Investment by CountyMetropolitan King County Councilmember Dwight Pelz said today that it will be a financial challenge for Metro Transit to meet the projected ridership numbers of the Seattle Monorail Project (SMP). “One of the basic financial assumptions the Seattle Monorail Project has made is that half of their ridership will reach monorail stations by Metro Bus,” said Pelz. “As Chair of the King County Council Transportation Committee I wanted solid numbers to assist in the analysis of this critical assumption.” In a July letter sent to King County Transportation Director Harold Taniguchi, Pelz requested that Metro study the assumptions made by SMP officials that Metro buses would deliver 35,000 riders a day to the proposed Green Line by the year 2020. Metro’s analysis concluded:* The SMP’s modeling assumes high frequencies for feeder bus routes, every 7.5 to 15 minutes during peak periods and every 15 minutes during off-peak hours. This is neither the current level of service in the Green Line corridor or is it likely to be in the future without major financial investments by King County taxpayers. * King County Metro believes it will only be able to redeploy 30,000 hours as a result of the Green Line. This is the equivalent of one moderate bus line, not a major investment of service hours.* Metro’s preliminary estimate is that an additional 60,000 hours would be necessary to deliver the level of service needed to achieve the SMP’s forecasted level of intermodal ridership. At an annual operating cost of between $5 million and $7 million this will be very difficult to achieve given Metro’s budgetary restraints. * Fare integration will also play into the level of service King County Metro can provide to the Green Line corridor. If the SMP accepts Metro transfers at full value, King County Metro estimates their annual loss from current ridership at $2.6 million annually. With a 50% transfer value, Metro’s loss is $1.8 million annually. Metro also believes that additional fare revenue will be lost from current Metro riders who currently walk to a bus, but will live close enough to walk to a monorail station. Pelz asked Metro to respond to his question in a timely fashion, in order to assist the city of Seattle’s financial review of the Seattle Monorail Project. The Seattle Popular Monorail Plan estimates that the Green Line may be financially self-sufficient–that it would not require further operational subsidies (taxes)–after the first nine years of operation. Ridership projections are critical if the agency is to receive the vast bulk of its income from the farebox. Equally important are the transfer arrangements with Metro. “In summary, I believe that SMP has overestimated the number of riders which Metro will deliver to Green Line stations,” said Pelz. “I believe it is highly unlikely that the King County Council will choose to allocate all of the service hours needed to meet the Green Line’s projections on service.””Given the 30 percent shortfall in MVET revenues the project has currently experienced, farebox revenues will be vitally important. Unlike King County Metro and Sound Transit, the Seattle Monorail Project promised citizens that they would not require an ongoing operating subsidy,” said Pelz. “It is critical that the city of Seattle’s independent financial review of the Green Line thoroughly probe these issues of transfers and ridership.” ###Metro-Monorail Study-Pg 2
