By. Bill Fletcher Jr.NNPA Columnist
As fuel prices rise at the pump, quite predictably the news media has begun to ask questions about why this is taking place and what, if anything, can be done about it. There are some hard truths that we have to face, and some of this has a direct impact on the foreign policy pursued by this country.Most objective observers of the oil industry will admit that we are fast approaching the point where the amount of oil in the ground will begin to decline until it ultimately vanishes. In other words, oil was never limitless, though we in the U.S.A. especially acted, and were trained to act, as if it were. So, by the mid-21st century there will likely be a severe oil crunch.What is obscene about this situation is that experts have known this fact-regarding the inevitable disappearance of oil-for years, yet the oil industry and their political allies have largely hidden or dismissed such notions as alarmist. Well, the alarm is now beginning to ring.The second fact is that growing numbers of countries are demanding oil for their own internal needs. This may sound self-evident, but the US government often acts as if oil is being extracted for the benefit of the U.S.-and perhaps Western Europe-alone. As countries such as China, India and South Africa expand their economies, there is the unfortunate reliance on fossil fuels, oil especially. Thus, in a period where oil will be thinning out, there will be greater numbers of competitors seeking the oil.The third fact is that oil producing nations want greater control over who gets their oil and at what prices. One can see this playing out right now in the hostility of the Bush administration toward Venezuela. The government of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has asserted that as a sovereign country they have the right to sell oil to who they wish in order to benefit the long-term growth of Venezuela. Is this outrageous? Apparently the Bush administration thinks so, and regularly takes the opportunity to threaten or taunt the Venezuelan government. Venezuela, however, is not by itself in wanting to use oil to help to advance their specific national objectives.Recently former United Nations weapons inspector Hans Blix noted that he now believed that the U.S. invasion of Iraq had a great deal to do with oil. He said that he had not originally believed this to be the case, but he was now convinced. Join the club, Hans. It seems fairly evident that oil was at least a piece of the equation.Yet Iraq is not the only site for U.S. interest in oil. As mentioned in earlier columns, greater Bush administration attention has gone to African oil producers, particularly in the Gulf of Guinea (such as Nigeria, Cameroon, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea), Angola and southern Sudan. This interest has taken various forms. In the Sudan, the Bush administration played a relatively constructive role (I know; don’t fall out of your chair) in negotiating the peace settlement between the Khartoum government and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement/Army; in West Africa the Bush administration is seriously contemplating the redeployment of US troops for purposes of ‘security;’ in the case of Libya, with the repudiation of nuclear weapons by President Qaddafi, the Bush administration is treating the Libyans as long-lost cousins; and, in almost all cases, an oil producing country is immune from Bush administration criticism for any action so long as that country is prepared to play a subordinate role to the U.S.A. In effect, this means that should governments come to power in oil producing Africa that are consistently in favor of self-determined political and economic development and may choose to disagree with the Bush administration over matters of foreign policy or the manner in which the Bush administration and their oil allies deal with their respective countries, those countries face the prospect of increased tensions, perhaps up to and including the dreaded regime change.This is all to say that the oil crisis is chronic and it is about much more than the cost at our fuel pumps. It could very well be about the contexts of major conflicts as we get deeper into the 21st century and deeper into the void left by disappearing oil.Bill Fletcher Jr. is president of TransAfrica Forum, a Washington, D.C.-based non-profit educational and organizing center formed to raise awareness in the United States about issues facing the nations and peoples of Africa, the Caribbean and Latin America. He also is co-chair of the anti-war coalition, United for Peace and Justice (www.unitedforpeace.org). He can be reached at bfletcher@transafricaforum.org.
