A national economist painted a grim picture for the future of construction at a meeting of contractors in Spokane last week’s Thursday, citing the impact of rising tariffs and stringent immigration policies. Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America, addressed the Inland Northwest Chapter of the AGC, presenting data that illustrated a decline in construction employment. He noted that project timelines are slowing as owners grapple with the policy shifts introduced during the Trump administration.
“There’s little hope for a positive outlook in construction over the next year,” Simonson remarked. “The data indicates a significant slowdown, and even a decrease, in both construction employment and spending. Washington state has been particularly affected, experiencing one of the steepest declines in construction jobs, likely due to numerous projects being stalled and reduced state funding.”
One graph he shared revealed that around 89% of construction firms in Washington are reporting job openings, yet few are opting to fill these positions. In the Spokane metropolitan area, construction employment has fallen by 7% since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Simonson highlighted that approximately 27% of the construction workforce in Washington is foreign-born, with varying implications across different trades. For example, around 61% of drywall workers and 54% of roofers are immigrants. A national survey found that 28% of construction firms reported being directly impacted by immigration policies.
Furthermore, one in ten companies noted that workers had either left their positions or failed to show up due to concerns about U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement actions. “Nationally, about 20% of firms and 25% in Washington indicated that their subcontractors had lost workers,” he explained. “Losing workers leads to increased costs for overtime, replacement, and project completion.”
